Happy Monday! We have an NFC South matchup to close out NFL Week 4 as the Falcons travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints. Before we hunt for the best touchdown picks for MNF, let’s set the stage.
Both teams have dealt with plenty of injuries through the first month of the season. The Saints remain without Jordyn Tyson and recently placed Travis Etienne on injured reserve, while Michael Penix Jr. returns for his second start of the season after bringing some life back to Atlanta’s offense in last week’s win over Green Bay.
New Orleans is also dealing with Noah Fant’s abdominal injury, so keep an eye on his status before kickoff. Spoiler alert: I like him a lot tonight, so he’s a big one to monitor.
I think Bijan Robinson is in for a massive game, but I’m not interested in laying a huge number on him to score. Instead, I’m targeting one Falcons receiver with a clear connection to Penix, plus two Saints pass catchers whose red-zone usage is better than their touchdown prices suggest.
Let’s get into my favorite touchdown predictions for Monday night at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best Falcons vs. Saints Touchdown Props for MNF
- Drake London +110 Anytime TD
- Devaughn Vele +230 Anytime TD
- Noah Fant +500 Anytime TD
All referenced odds are subject to change.
MNF Touchdown Pick: Drake London (+100)
I’ll start with Drake London at +110.
Usually, I prefer targeting players at plus-money prices in the touchdown market. But London is in a spot where I am willing to make an exception.
We know where Atlanta’s condensed offensive volume is going to go. It starts with Bijan Robinson, it goes to London, and then maybe Kyle Pitts gets involved.
Robinson should have a huge game against a Saints defense that has been vulnerable to zone-run concepts, but London is the best touchdown price among the Falcons’ core weapons.
The Penix-London connection has been impossible to ignore.
London has posted more than a 30% target share in games with Penix as his quarterback. That number dropped below 10% in a smaller sample with other quarterbacks last season, including Kirk Cousins. Penix trusts London, he looks for him in high-leverage situations, and the two were clearly on the same page last week.
London caught nine passes for 194 yards in Penix’s return against Green Bay. He did everything but score, and this feels like a great bounce-back spot for him to find the end zone. London clearly has unreal god-given ability, but out-sprinting his peers in the open field isn’t one of them–or perhaps he would have scored twice last week. But if he had, we wouldn’t be getting him at +110 today.
The Saints have allowed production to nearly every position group this season, including running backs and tight ends. But I cannot get over the target concentration here. London is the clear alpha receiver in an offense that should be able to move the football, and he has a real chance to see multiple end-zone opportunities.
At +110, I think London is worth the price.
Monday TD Prediction: Devaughn Vele (+230)
Now, we’ll head to the Saints’ side, where Devaughn Vele is one of my favorite touchdown bets on the board.
Atlanta has been excellent against the run so far. The Falcons are allowing a league-best 0.77 yards before contact per rush attempt, although that comes on only 23 opponent rushing attempts. It’s still a small sample, but the Falcons have been extremely disruptive at the line of scrimmage.
That could make things difficult for Alvin Kamara and the Saints’ rushing attack, especially with Etienne unavailable. If the Saints need to throw more often, Vele has a path to another valuable role in this offense.
He’s barely come off the field when New Orleans gets close to the end zone.
Vele has played all 18 Saints snaps inside the 10-yard line and all eight inside the 5. He has also played 94% of New Orleans’ snaps inside the 20, which is elite touchdown usage.
That’s the type of deployment I want when I’m betting touchdowns. It is not just about raw targets. Who is actually on the field with a chance to score? Chris Olave dominates the overall target volume, but Vele has still seen three end-zone targets, four deep targets, and three targets inside the 20.
Atlanta’s secondary remains banged up, and the Falcons’ commitment to slowing the run has left them vulnerable in the back end. Vele should get opportunities in a game where Tyler Shough may need to lean on the passing game.
At +230, I think this is an obvious value play.
MNF TD Prop: Noah Fant (+500)
Noah Fant is the longer shot I want to chase at +500. And yes, he is questionable to play tonight.
Juwan Johnson is the more established Saints tight end, and he is certainly in a strong spot. But Fant’s price is much more appealing, especially considering the way New Orleans has begun to split its tight-end snaps near the goal line.
Fant played a season-high 57% of the Saints’ offensive snaps last week, compared with Johnson’s 62%. That is a far more even split than the opener, when Johnson played 84% of the snaps and more than doubled Fant’s workload.
Fant started the season with a touchdown on eight targets against Detroit. Then, he had zero catches and zero targets against Baltimore, but the important thing was that he still played both of the Saints’ snaps inside the 5 and three of four inside the 10.
Last week, Fant caught both of his touchdowns on four targets against the Raiders. Shough has already shown he is comfortable targeting his tight ends near the end zone.
Fant has played just under 50% of the Saints’ overall offensive snaps, but the money-zone usage is much better. He has played seven snaps inside the 5 and 12 of 18 inside the 10, good for the third-highest share on the team in that range behind Vele and Johnson.
He also runs nearly 70% of his routes inline, which makes him an interesting goal-line option. The Saints may use more two-tight-end personnel to help the run game, and that could set up play-action opportunities near the end zone.
At +500, I am willing to take a shot. Johnson may be the safer tight-end choice, but Fant has a much better number and plenty of red-zone involvement. I also don’t mind a small sprinkle on Fant’s +3000 first-touchdown price if you want to chase an even bigger payout.
That being said, if he suits up, I don’t feel like we’re “chasing” Fant after his hot start, especially after confirming his red-zone role.
Good luck with all of your MNF touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props — we are getting nice numbers for a reason.
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