Wednesday’s MLB playoff slate is a baseball fan’s heaven. All eight remaining teams are in action, and all four matchups could potentially result in one team advancing to the League Championship Series while the other is sent packing to join the other 22 teams whose seasons are already over.
With so much on the line and plenty of drama building, it’s now or never for these eight teams and their players, especially the ones facing elimination. We’re highlighting four MLB home run props for October 7 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook for Wednesday’s full slate of playoff games.
Let’s dig into our best home run picks today!
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Wednesday, October 7
- Miguel Vargas +450 (Guardians at White Sox – 4 p.m. ET)
- Freddie Freeman +600 (Dodgers at Braves – 6 p.m. ET)
- Ben Rice +260 (Rays at Yankees – 8 p.m. ET)
- Manny Machado +475 (Brewers at Padres – 10 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Pick: Miguel Vargas (+450)
Miguel Vargas enjoyed a breakout year in 2026 and was a big reason why the Chicago White Sox snapped a streak of three consecutive 100-loss seasons and earned the franchise’s first trip to the postseason since 2021. This young and exciting White Sox team continues to surprise many, having won each of its first four playoff games this year as Chicago looks to complete a three-game sweep of Cleveland Wednesday and advance to the ALCS.
Vargas hasn’t necessarily contributed much offensively in the White Sox’s lineup so far this postseason, collecting just two hits in four games, but it’s safe to say he’s due based on the regular season he put together. Vargas set career highs with 33 home runs and 93 RBIs and also posted career bests with a .474 slugging percentage and .837 OPS, which ranked near the top of MLB in those statistical categories. He was also named to the first All-Star Game of his career.
He may not be producing in the playoffs yet, but Vargas faces a favorable matchup Wednesday against Cleveland. The Guardians are starting Daniel Espino, who Vargas is 1-for-2 against in his career, with that one hit being a home run. Vargas also had a lot of success against Cleveland overall in 2026, batting .304 with a .565 slugging percentage, .989 OPS, and three home runs during the regular season.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Freddie Freeman (+600)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have played only three playoff games after earning a first-round bye as the NL’s No. 2 seed, but Freddie Freeman has already made his mark on this postseason. After going 1-for-3 in Game 1 of this NLDS, Freeman has since gone 3-for-8 over the next two games, with two of those hits being solo home runs against his former team, Atlanta.
While it could be seen as a reach for a player to hit a home run in three consecutive games, particularly in the playoffs, it’s not impossible, especially for an elite talent like Freeman. It’s even more possible considering his matchup in Game 4 Wednesday.
Not only has Freeman put up good numbers against his former team since joining the Dodgers, posting a .286 batting average with a .509 slugging percentage, .889 OPS, and six home runs in 29 career regular season games against the Braves, but he has also had success against Atlanta’s starting pitcher for Game 4. Tyler Mahle is set to make the start for the Braves Wednesday, and Freeman owns a career .421/.500/.632 slash line with a 1.132 OPS and one home run against him across 22 plate appearances.
Sometimes it’s best to ride the hot bat, and Freeman definitely fits that description right now.
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Ben Rice (+260)
Like Miguel Vargas above, Ben Rice also enjoyed a breakout 2026 campaign during the regular season, and he hasn’t necessarily slowed down through the New York Yankees’ first four playoff games this year. The 2026 first-time All-Star and Home Run Derby participant launched a career-high 41 home runs in the regular season and leads all players in this year’s playoffs with four long balls so far.
Rice had a two-home run game in the Yankees’ AL Wild Card Series Game 1 win over Boston and then had another two-home run performance in Game 2 of the ALDS against Tampa Bay on Monday, despite New York losing that game 5-2. Rice is batting .467 with a 1.333 slugging percentage and 1.889 OPS this postseason, proving to be an extremely dangerous hitter even on the biggest stage, where others sometimes can’t handle the pressure.
Rice and the Yankees are also set to face Tampa Bay right-hander Nick Martinez in Game 3 Wednesday, and while Martinez had an incredible regular season in which he was named to the first All-Star Game of his career, Rice has had plenty of success against him in their head-to-head matchups.
Rice has never hit a home run off Martinez, but he does own a .444 batting average with a .778 slugging percentage and 1.323 OPS against him. Rice also notably hit well against Tampa Bay throughout the regular season, clobbering seven home runs and bringing his 2026 total to nine against his AL East rivals when including the playoffs.
MLB Home Run Prop: Manny Machado (+475)
Manny Machado had a very disappointing regular season from a batting average perspective, but the San Diego Padres star third baseman still hit 30 home runs and recorded 91 RBIs, both of which led the team. Machado has been incredible for the Padres through their first five playoff games this year, and he’ll need to continue that with San Diego’s season on the line for the second straight day, down 2-1 in the NLDS against Milwaukee.
The Padres won Game 3 Tuesday night, and Machado went 1-for-3 with an RBI single. He’s batting .375 with a .688 slugging percentage and 1.212 OPS this postseason, and while his lone home run of the playoffs came back in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs, he still has the ability to go yard whenever he steps into the batter’s box, as we’ve seen throughout his illustrious career.
MLB Playoff Home Run Leaders – 10/7
Here are the MLB playoff home run leaders as of Wednesday:
- Ben Rice, Yankees – 4
- Ozzie Albies, Braves – 2
- William Contreras, Brewers – 2
- Freddie Freeman, Dodgers – 2
- Max Muncy, Dodgers – 2
Good luck Wednesday!
More Ways to Bet
One swing can cash your ticket, but until then, Florida players can keep things interesting with Real Money Games powered by Past Motor Racing, only on Hard Rock Bet. It’s another way to stay engaged between plate appearances.
Referenced odds are subject to change.
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