NFL Touchdown Predictions: The Best TD Bets for Week 5 (Oct. 11)

Welcome to my top NFL touchdown picks for Week 5! Set those alarms because Jacksonville and Philadelphia get the Week 5 NFL slate rolling at 9:30 a.m. ET.

We have five touchdown bets to work through, and there is a little something for everyone. I’m circling two tight ends who get valuable work near the goal line, two receivers whose quarterbacks keep looking their way, and a running back in what could be the most entertaining game of the afternoon.

Some of these players have already delivered this year. Others have the usage without the touchdowns to show for it. Either way, I’m more interested in what their teams are asking them to do than whether they scored last Sunday.

Let’s dig into my favorite touchdown bets for October 11 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

The Best NFL Touchdown Bets for Week 5

• Brenton Strange +275 Anytime TD
• Michael Wilson +165 Anytime TD
• Tyler Allgeier +220 Anytime TD
• Drake London +115 Anytime TD
• Darnell Washington +325 Anytime TD

All referenced odds are subject to change.

London Touchdown Pick: Brenton Strange (+275)

Coffee and a Brenton Strange touchdown would be a pretty good way to start the day.

I’m going back to Jacksonville’s tight end because the deployment still checks the boxes, even if the recent touchdown results have not cooperated.

Strange scored in the opener and has not found the end zone since. That is frustrating if you have been backing him, but it is not a reason to abandon a player who remains heavily involved where it matters.

He has played 30 of Jacksonville’s 33 snaps inside the 20-yard line, a 90% share and comfortably the highest mark on the team. Inside the 10? Every snap. Inside the 5? Same story.

That’s not a guarantee that the ball comes his way, but Jacksonville is giving him every opportunity to be part of the scoring plan.

There is also more to this bet than hoping for a little goal-line leak-out. Strange has 13 targets over the last two weeks and has run 41% of his routes from the slot, the second-highest rate on the Jaguars.

Philadelphia has allowed an above-average share of targets to players lined up there. Strange’s ability to work away from the formation gives him a useful matchup angle rather than leaving him attached to the line all morning.

The Eagles’ offense has struggled to keep drives alive, and their defense has not been particularly convincing, either. If Jacksonville gets extra possessions, that could mean more chances for Strange to put this red-zone workload to use.

I’ll take +275 on a player whose opportunity has been much better than his recent scoring output.

Week 5 TD Bet: Michael Wilson (+165)

If Arizona–Detroit turns into the game everyone expects, I want a piece of the pie, and I’m landing on Michael Wilson.

Neither defense has done much to inspire confidence. Detroit can keep putting points on the board, though, which should prevent Arizona from getting comfortable and taking its foot off the gas.

That sets up nicely for Wilson, whose workload looks every bit like that of a featured receiver.

He has a 27% target share and a whopping 45% air-yard share. We are not talking about a complementary player who needs everything to break perfectly. Arizona is making a point of getting him the football, including downfield.

The close-range opportunities are there too. Wilson has played 97% of the Cardinals’ snaps inside the 20, with eight targets in that area and four end-zone targets. Both target totals match Trey McBride.

That is what separates this from simply betting on a receiver in a potential shootout. Wilson has the role to capitalize on the environment.

He can cash on a deep ball without Arizona ever reaching the red zone, but he is also getting looks when the field shrinks.

At +165, there is enough substance here to make Wilson my preferred touchdown target in this game. Let’s roll.

Sunday Touchdown Pick: Tyler Allgeier (+220)

Let’s stay in Arizona–Detroit, because Tyler Allgeier’s +220 price also caught my attention.

This game has a much higher total than any other contest on the Week 5 slate. If we are shopping for touchdown opportunities, that is a sensible place to start.

But the total alone isn’t why I like Allgeier. The backfield usage is what makes this interesting.

Allgeier outsnapped Jeremiyah Love by a considerable margin last week. There has also been speculation that Love got banged up at the end of Week 4, so his status is something to follow through Sunday.

I’m not treating that speculation as a confirmed injury situation. Still, Love’s comments about it being a long season do not make me eager to pencil him in for an immediate workload rebound.

The most recent evidence we have is Allgeier getting substantially more playing time.

That matters in a game where both offenses could spend plenty of time in scoring territory. Allgeier does not need every backfield touch to justify this price, but a continuation of last week’s snap distribution would certainly help.

There is some uncertainty here, and that is worth acknowledging. At +220, though, I’m interested in the combination of his recent workload and a game environment that could offer several chances to finish a drive.

Week 5 TD Prediction: Drake London (+115)

My approach to Drake London is pretty straightforward:

If Michael Penix Jr. is playing quarterback and London is still plus money, I’m going to give the number a serious look.

Penix has made his preference clear.

Dating back to the beginning of 2025, London has commanded north of a 30% target share when the two have played together. That’s a lot of football going to one receiver, and it is the foundation of this bet.

We don’t need to invent a story about Atlanta suddenly featuring London. The connection is already there.

Baltimore’s historical defensive reputation doesn’t change my opinion much. This isn’t the Ed Reed–Ray Lewis defense, and the Ravens just allowed rookie Carnell Tate to go wild against them.

That doesn’t automatically mean London scores, of course. But London gives us an established quarterback connection and a huge share of Atlanta’s passing opportunities. Getting +115 on that package is enough to keep him on my card.

Sunday Long-Shot TD Bet: Darnell Washington (+325)

For the final pick, let’s get a little more specific about what we need.

Darnell Washington isn’t going to require a dozen targets to make this bet interesting. We need Pittsburgh to get close and give its massive tight end a chance to use his size.

Indianapolis looks like a reasonable opponent for that plan.

The Colts have been getting shredded defensively, and Washington creates an obvious problem when the Steelers can isolate him against someone much smaller.

More importantly, Pittsburgh is actually putting him in those situations.

Washington has played 70% of the Steelers’ snaps inside the 10-yard line. Pittsburgh has thrown on 70% of its red-zone plays, and he leads the team with three end-zone targets.

Those numbers tell a more useful story than his overall workload. He may not be a major part of every drive, but his involvement becomes much more relevant once the Steelers get close.

Washington scored against Cleveland last week, and I am usually careful about chasing a touchdown from a lower-volume player. Here, though, the situational usage gives us a reason to come back rather than simply hoping lightning strikes twice.

At +325, I’m backing the role Pittsburgh has carved out for him near the goal line.

Good luck with all of your Week 5 touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props — a good angle does not eliminate the variance.

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