Happy Monday! Welcome to my best NFL touchdown picks for Monday Night Football. We have two offenses capable of putting on a show as the Bills visit the Rams to close out the Week 5 NFL slate.
I’m targeting two Bills’ pass catchers and paying a little juice for a Rams’ receiver who can find the end zone in several different ways.
Let’s get into my favorite touchdown predictions for Monday night at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best Bills vs. Rams Touchdown Props for MNF
- Keon Coleman +240 Anytime TD
- Dalton Kincaid +175 Anytime TD
- Puka Nacua -125 Anytime TD
All referenced odds are subject to change.
MNF Touchdown Pick: Keon Coleman
Keon Coleman is the player whose price could look particularly appealing by kickoff.
Joshua Palmer has been ruled out, and DJ Moore is questionable after dealing with injuries early in the season. That leaves Buffalo with some uncertainty at receiver, but Coleman’s role was already heading in the right direction.
Coleman has played at least 74% of the offensive snaps in two of Buffalo’s four games. The target share is not going to knock anyone out of their chair, but the playing time is becoming more encouraging.
Without Palmer, the Bills need Coleman on the field. If Moore cannot go, the opportunity could grow considerably.
Even if Moore plays, I don’t think that eliminates the appeal here. Coleman should still have a meaningful role in a game where Buffalo may need to keep throwing.
The close-range deployment is another reason I’m interested. Coleman has played 12 of the Bills’ 20 snaps inside the 10-yard line this season. He is a big-bodied receiver who gives Josh Allen a target capable of winning in tight spaces.
We don’t need to pretend Coleman has suddenly become Buffalo’s unquestioned No. 1 receiver. However, we’re getting +240 on a player whose participation has been increasing, whose team is short at his position, and who already gets on the field near the goal line.
I would rather buy into that opportunity now than wait for a big game to make the price less attractive next week. Keep an eye on Moore’s status, but Coleman belongs on the card either way.
Monday TD Prediction: Dalton Kincaid
The biggest development with Dalton Kincaid is pretty simple. He is actually getting the playing time we want.
Kincaid leads Buffalo in receiving yards and has played the third-most offensive snaps among the team’s running backs, receivers, and tight ends. Compared with last season, that availability is a meaningful change.
Kincaid has also played nine of Buffalo’s 13 snaps inside the 5-yard line, the fourth-most on the team. He is involved when the Bills get close, and the matchup gives Joe Brady a reason to feature him in the passing game.
Los Angeles plays Cover 1 at the fourth-highest rate in the league. The Rams also use man coverage on 29% of their defensive plays, ranking ninth in football.
Those tendencies make Kincaid interesting because Brady can move him around and look for a favorable individual matchup. That doesn’t mean every man-coverage snap turns into a Kincaid target. But it creates situations where his receiving ability can become a real advantage.
Between the increased workload, the receiving production, and his participation inside the 5, there is more substance here than simply betting on a talented tight end to have a good night.
At +175, Kincaid is another Buffalo pass catcher I want exposure to.
MNF TD Prop: Puka Nacua
Normally, I spend most of these articles shopping for plus-money prices. Puka Nacua is the exception this week.
At -125, we are paying for a player who sits at the center of everything Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford want to do.
Nacua appears to have a clean bill of health, and his importance to this offense is not difficult to identify. Despite missing two games, he owns a 26% target share and a massive 35% air-yard share.
He also leads the Rams in first-read rate. When Stafford drops back, Nacua is regularly the first place he wants to go with the football.
That is the type of involvement that makes me willing to consider a shorter touchdown price.
Buffalo’s defense has been underwhelming, and Nacua should spend plenty of time working outside against it. His downfield involvement gives him a chance to score without Los Angeles needing to methodically work its way to the goal line.
If the Rams do get close, his established red-zone role becomes another part of the equation.
McVay can also manufacture touches for him on an end-around or another designed play. Nacua is not limited to winning a traditional receiving route to get us paid.
I expect his involvement to build now that he is healthy, but we do not need to project some brand-new role to justify the bet. The existing target concentration, first-read usage, and multiple scoring paths already make a strong case.
I’m comfortable laying -125 on Stafford’s preferred weapon against this defense.
Good luck with all of your MNF touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these props – strong usage gives us a reason to bet, not a guaranteed trip to the end zone.
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